Works in progress

The Measurement of Labor Market Expectations of Persons with Disabilities in Canada, with Charles Bellemare and Luc Bissonnette.

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Abstract:

Individuals with disabilities face multiple challenges to successfully integrate the labor market and find satisfactory jobs. In this paper, we assess a supply-side explanation for the relatively lower labor market outcomes of persons with disabilities by contrasting their subjective beliefs about various labor market outcomes (interview rates, job quits, job losses, job promotions) with those of persons without disabilities. We exploit new expectations survey data administered to both workers and job seekers in two Canadian provinces (Québec and New Brunswick). We estimate the determinants of subjective beliefs about each labor market outcome taking into account measurement error due to respondents rounding their probabilistic beliefs in the survey. We find that persons with disabilities are significantly more pessimistic about the odds of getting an interview request after applying for a job, and believe being significantly more likely to leave their jobs in the next 12 months when employed relative to persons without disabilities. On the other hand, we find that persons with disabilities are significantly more optimistic about finding a better job in the future, an indication of their dissatisfaction about their current jobs. Finally, we find that persons with disabilities round their probalistic statements more than persons without disabilities, possibly reflecting greater underlying uncertainty about labor market outcomes.